The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs have been absolutely sensational thus far, and now we’re getting to the business end of the postseason. It’s very difficult to know how a team will adapt from an 82 game season of one-off matchups and project how they’ll translate that into a deeply tactical, chess-like, seven game series.
For what it’s worth: In my Stanley Cup Playoffs preview I correctly predicted seven of the eight series, four of which with the exact number of games. Now we dive into the second round, which should solidify who is poised to challenge for the cup.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
Doubting the Panthers based on their regular season performance was always a fool’s errand. This Florida team was much better than their record showed due to Matthew Tkachuk’s injury, paired with some players being banged up on their third and fourth lines. Now they’re healthy and look every part of the same team that hoisted the cup a year ago.
The Leafs are good. This is the best Toronto team that has made the playoffs in years, but the first round against Ottawa was entirely more difficult than it should have been. Part of this was a drop in play by goaltender Anthony Stolarz, who saw his SV% drop to .901 against Ottawa, but also unforced errors by the defense that opened up opportunities the Sens never should have gotten. Morgan Rielly and Jack McCabe led the team is giveaways, with many of these coming in the defensive zone. That feels very worrying against a team like Florida who loves to force errors with their brutal forecheck.
The flip side of this is that Sergei Bobrovsky is back to being hockey’s most infuriating playoff goaltender. The Florida netminder’s game is tailor-made to piss you off, where he’ll stand on his head and make 10 saves nobody should ever be able to. That’s after you get through the Panthers wall of defenders. Offensively this team has found a new edge with the addition of Brad Marchand, who has stepped in and become the ideal veteran facilitator on the depth lines.
I’m someone who believes hockey is better when there’s a Canadian team with a major chance to win the cup, but I don’t see it happening in this series.
Prediction: Panthers win 4-2
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Washington Capitals
Much as Stars vs. Avs was the marquee matchup of the first round, the Canes and Caps are about to put on a brutal show.
These teams know each other so well, but what could decide this series is the battle of the Russians up front. Obviously everyone knows about Alex Ovechkin’s history-making 2024-25 season when he broke Wayne Gretzky’s career goal record, but he’s also the most important scorer the Capitals have right now, especially with Aliaksei Protas still out with a cut tendon he sustained in the series opener against Montreal. We know how good Ovi is and what he brings to the table, but the surprise is on the other side of the ledger.
It’s been unclear exactly who Andrei Svechnikov is beyond a fan favorite. He’s one of these players who would easily be an 80-point guy in a team that highlights individual play, but has often been stifled in Rod Brind’Amour’s two-way, deep line system. That changed this playoffs as Svechnikov said he wanted to take a bigger role, shoulder more of the responsibility, and responded with five goals and an assist against the Devils. If Svech is able to keep up his prolific scoring it gives Carolina the star power they’ve been missing up front.
On an individual level Washington has the edge. It’s difficult to map the true single-player ability of Oveckin, Protas, Tom Wilson and Dylan Strome across to the Canes. However, Carolina has the deeper lines and an ace in their sleeve when it comes to Alexander Nikishin, who could make a surprise appearance at any point.
At this point missing Protas is hurting Washington a lot. If he comes back the series could completely flip, but I have to go off how convincing Carolina looked against New Jersey vs. Washington against a worse opponent in Montreal.
Prediction: Hurricanes win 4-3
Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars
The Colorado series went to seven games and it happened. It took entirely too long for Mikko Rantanen to get going, but when he did he completely changed the playoff outlook of Dallas. If we’re going to get the prolific, dynamic, dominant Rantanen — then they’re probably the favorites to win the whole thing.
These were two teams stretched to their absolute limits in the first round, so neither is going to be more fresh than each other. The key issue in believing in Winnipeg right now is the colossal step back Connor Hellebuyck took in the opening round. This was the most dominant goaltender in hockey, and he turned into a pumpkin against the Blues, allowing a league-worst .830 save percentage in the opening round.
If Hellebuyck isn’t on his game then Winnipeg is sunk. They have absolutely no chance unless their defensive, measured, game-controlling play is able to get shattered.
It’s very tough to see how Dallas doesn’t break through this strategy. Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnson have the ability to take over a game. Couple that with the expectation that Jason Robertson will return from injury and it doesn’t bode well for the Jets.
Unfortunately as much as I believed in the Jets entering the playoffs, I’ve now lost confidence in them. Meanwhile the Stars are exactly who I thought they’d be now Rantanen has found his form.
Prediction: Stars win 4-1
Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers
Nobody has the top-line talent of Edmonton in these playoffs. One could potentially make an argument for Dallas, but even as good as they are, there’s nothing quite like a team boasting the offensive firepower of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. That’s also this team’s biggest issue: They’re far too top heavy.
Edmonton’s seemingly perpetual problem is overloading on offense at the expense of their defense and netminding. That has not changed in 2025. Against the Kings we saw that the Oilers’ top-end play was enough to overwhelm a deeper team, but the Golden Knights are on another level.
Las Vegas conceivably has four deep lines that can all score. Yes, they’re a little lacking on the wings, but that feels like enough to be able to grind this series out. We are seeing far from the best Golden Knights team that’s been in the playoffs recently, but I also feel like the same can be said for the Oilers.
When it comes down to it: I trust the Knights at their worst more than the Oilers at theirs. This is going to be a series where whoever can tread in deep water will win, and Vegas is better equipped for it.
Prediction: Golden Knights win 4-2