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Shock poll: Trump edges past Biden in key state, potential sign of cracks in Dems blue wall

Former President Donald Trump holds a two-point edge over President Biden in Wisconsin, according to a new poll on their 2024 presidential election rematch.

Trump stands at 51% support among registered voters in the crucial Midwestern battleground, with Biden at 49%, according to a Marquette Law School Poll released on Wednesday.

According to the survey, which was conducted April 3-10, the former president holds the same 51%-49% edge over his White House successor among the smaller pool of likely voters.


Trump and Biden

Former President Donald Trump holds a two-point edge over President Biden in Wisconsin, according to a new poll in their 2024 presidential election rematch. (Getty Images)

When third-party and independent candidates are included, Trump grabs 41% among registered voters, with Biden at 40%, Democrat turned independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3% and independent progressive Cornell West at 2%.

Among likely voters, it’s Trump 42%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 12%, Stein 3% and West 1%.

The poll is the latest in Wisconsin over the past month to indicate Trump either with a slight advantage or tied with Biden.

Wisconsin — which Democrats carried in presidential elections from 1988 through 2012 — was part of the party’s so-called ‘blue wall.’

President Joe Biden campaigning

President Biden visits his Wisconsin election campaign office Wednesday, March 13, 2024, in Milwaukee.  (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

But eight years ago, Trump topped Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by a razor-thin margin to win the state. But four years later, Wisconsin was one of six battleground states that Biden narrowly carried over Trump to win the White House.

The poll indicates Biden topping Trump 97%-3% among Democrats, with Trump holding a 91%-9% lead among Republicans. 


“Independents lean substantially to Trump in this month’s survey, with 59% for Trump and 41% voting for Biden,” a release from the Marquette Law School Poll highlights.

The poll also notes, “In the five-way ballot test, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans than from Democrats and an especially large share from independents. Stein and West take more votes from Democrats than from Republicans.”

Trump likely to set single event fundraising record at Palm Beach gathering

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks, Tuesday, April 2, 2024, at a rally in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer) (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

According to the survey, Trump enjoys the advantage when it comes to enthusiasm. Respondents who said they were very enthusiastic about voting supported Trump over Biden 59%-41%.

The president campaigned in Wisconsin last month, with Trump stopping in the state earlier this month.

Wisconsin is also one of a handful of states that will determine if Republicans can win back the Senate majority.

The poll indicates Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde 52%-47% among registered voters. But the survey suggests the race is deadlocked at 50% among likely voters.

The Marquette Law School poll questioned 814 registered voters, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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