With three weeks until the NFL Draft we have a little more insight into what might happen. It’s not a solid picture, but more like a jello picture — one with a little wiggle, but we can understand the basic form of the thing.
A lot has changed since the pre-draft process began in earnest at the NFL Scouting Combine. Today we’re diving in to the players whose stock has drastically gone up or down, because nobody at all in the world is talking about stocks right now.
Stock up
Armand Membou, OT — Missouri
If you go back to the end of the NFL season Membou was a player who was routinely mocked in the teens on the upper end, and as low as the early 20s. Now there’s a very real chance he could be selected as high at No. 4 by the New England Patriots.
So what changed?
Membou had a monster outing at the combine. He finished 1st among all offensive linemen in drills — but also Will Campbell’s arms measured shorter than the NFL ideal. This had a sandwiching effect where questions began to circle whether or not Campbell will inevitably be kicked into guard when he hits the pros, which then booster Membou’s stock.
Whether or not that’s deserved remains to be seen.
Jaxson Dart, QB — Ole Miss
Desperation does wild things around draft time. We still have more teams in need of a quarterback than those available, and it’s resulted in Jaxson Dart being seriously considered as 1st round pick.
Is he worth it? Absolutely not. Dart has myriad issues that make him barely a day two pick, let alone a first rounder — but teams lose all sensibility when it comes to quarterbacks. Last year was a great example of this when Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix went much higher that projected, and Trey Lance before that. Someone is going to take Dart higher than they should.
Cam Ward, QB — Miami (FL)
When the 2024 college football season began, Miami quarterback Cam Ward was a fringe first-round player at best. Kyle Crabbs from The 33rd Team had Ward ranked at No. 29 in this preseason writeup, Curt Popejoy at DraftWire had Ward at No. 43 on his preseason draft board, and Connor Rogers at NBC Sports listed Ward at No. 50 on his initial Top 50 players.
Now there is every expectation that Ward will be the first player selected when the Tennessee Titans are on the clock.
Part of this is due to both the importance of the quarterback position, and part of it is due to the fact that the first three teams on the clock — Tennessee, Cleveland, and the New York Giants — could all be in the mix for a QB.
But part of this is also due to what Ward showed during his final season in Miami. Ward checks a lot of boxes as a QB prospect, from his arm to his decision-making inside the pocket, and he also has the necessary willingness to fight in the face of pressure.
From a Day Two prospect to the top of the board. Quite the rise in stock.
Colston Loveland, TE — Michigan
It’s always been tricky to project where tight ends will go in the NFL Draft because of how differently teams view the position. This year there are two really, really good players on offer Ty Warren is still the clubhouse leader and will likely be picked in the Top 10, but Michigan’s Colston Loveland has had a massive rise in recent weeks and now could be picked in the early teens, or even higher.
Loveland’s performance at the combine cemented him as a potentially elite pass catcher at the position, and with some coaching could become a high-end blocker as well. He’s garnering some Sam LaPorta comps, and LaPorta was a mammoth riser in the draft as well.
Stock down
Luther Burden, WR — Missouri
During the summer scouting season, Missouri WR Luther Burden was firmly in the “WR1” conversation. Some mock drafts as the fall began had Burden as high as No. 2 overall, such as this mock draft from Connor Rogers at NBC Sports.
Now? Mock drafts have Burden as a fringe first-round player, with recent mocks seeing him fall deep into the first round, if not out of the first round completely.
As you can see from his recent trendline at NFL Mock Draft Database, Burden’s stock continues to fall as we approach the draft:
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The reasoning behind this fall? Some might point to the dip in production this past season, as he saw his numbers drop from 2023. But inconsistent quarterback play — coupled with a tremendous amount of attention from opposing secondaries — likely played a part.
But the other reason? We are firmly in the dreaded “anonymous scout” season, and Burden has been described as a “diva” as the draft approaches. “There’s a lot of stuff that comes with Luther,” Todd McShay, an NFL draft analyst for The Ringer, said in a recent episode of “The McShay Show.” “I only say because I talk to NFL scouts who do their background checks and everything else. There’s a lot of diva.”
Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz has been Burden’s biggest defender in recent weeks.
“There are these quiet critics out here who say he has a character problem,” Drinkwitz said recently on The Rich Eisen Show. “My response to everybody has been, he’s never been arrested, he’s never had a public incident at our university, he has never once been to my office to complain about his role. … He’s just been a great teammate.”
A great teammate, and for one NFL team, a great player when they buy the dip.
James Pearce Jr, EDGE — Tennessee
It wasn’t long ago that James Pearce Jr. was in discussion to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Then he got passed by Abdul Carter. Then he dropped out of the Top 5, the Top 10 — and now there are questions whether or not he’ll even go in the first round.
The consistent theme surrounding Pearce is that he has all the physical tools and talent in the world, but there are major concerns about his attitude and dedication. When coaches and front offices get a whiff of that, it’s anathema to their sensibilities, and can absolutely tank a player’s stock.
What this now feels like is that a playoff team is going to land Pearce in the early 20s. Someone with the luxury to roll the dice will hope they can make it all happen for him, and if they do he could be the steal of the draft.
Mykel Williams, EDGE — Georgia
There’s a lot of debate over the two pass rushers from Georgia with Williams and teammate Jalon Walker only having a hair between them — but it appears like Walker is holding strong at his position, while Williams has dipped a little.
There’s nothing functionally wrong with Williams as a prospect. He’s a high upside pass rusher with less-than-ideal size to be a 4-3 end. The issue is more that questions arose about whether he can be an effective 3-4 linebacker due to some technique concerns. This has caused Williams to project a little riskier than he did before the process got deeper, and could likely push him out of the Top 10 to the early teens.
It’s not a big fall, but it suggests that someone is going to get a bargain.
Malaki Starks, S — Georgia
Maybe it’s due to a bit of prospect fatigue, but Malaki Starks has fallen a little bit post-NFL Combine. He didn’t really crush the athletic testing in indy (although if you look at his GPS data it tells a different story), and the middling performance has caused his stock to fall a little bit. While guys like Nick Emmanwori from South Carolina has risen quickly up the boards, Starks has taken a small dip.
Despite the athletic testing (which, in my opinion is still good enough), Starks is a fantastic player. His play took a small dip in 2024, but he was asked to do much different things for a Bulldogs secondary that was relatively young. He played the most snaps in the slot of any Georgia player this season with 158 per Sports Information Solutions, and a massive jump from his 70 slot snaps in 2023. Despite that, he was still very good for the Bulldogs in 2024.
Starks is going to be the classic case of taking the good football player versus a guy who is more of an athletic freak early in the draft. If he falls, someone is bound to get a steal.