– Eurozone GDP surprises to the upside.
– USDJPY volatile into BoJ meeting (July 31)
– US dollar little changed except against JPY
USDCAD: open 1.3843, overnight range 1.3838-1.3864, close 1.3855, WTI $75.78, Gold, $2389.34
The Canadian dollar is baking along with most of the Northern Hemisphere as heatwave warnings are issued by jurisdictions from New York City and Toronto to the UK and the Paris Olympics. The sweltering temperatures and inertia ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement have traders more focused on beaches than markets.
European equity indexes are mostly higher, except for the UK, which has slipped 0.13%. S&P 500 futures have risen 0.19%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is drifting between 4.17% and 4.18%.
Oil prices are depressed. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continues to trade with a bearish bias, with prices in a downtrend channel bordered by 74.45 on the bottom and 79.00 on the top. The selling pressure stems from fears of an oversupply beginning in Q4 when OPEC eliminates earlier production cuts, coinciding with slowing Chinese demand due to an ongoing economic slump.
Today’s US economic calendar includes Housing Price data, the Consumer Sentiment Index, and the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey. The results are unlikely to have a lasting impact on FX markets as they are not expected to influence tomorrow’s FOMC deliberations. While no one expects the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday, there is anticipation that Mr. Powell will indicate a September rate cut is on the table.
EURUSD is trading sideways in a 1.0814-1.0835 range. Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside, rising 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 compared to the forecast of a 0.2% increase. However, German GDP data disappointed, with economic growth contracting by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2. These results were overshadowed by caution ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2843-1.2866 range, mirroring EURUSD moves. GBPUSD gains are hampered by speculation that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points at Thursday’s meeting.
USDJPY experienced a wild ride overnight, sinking and then soaring within a wide 153.62-155.22 range. The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is tomorrow, and traders are still debating the odds of a rate hike.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6533-0.6562 range, supported by improved risk sentiment but tempered by caution ahead of Australian inflation data on Wednesday.
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